By Robbie Orvis
The free and open-source Vitality Coverage Simulator (EPS) pc mannequin developed by Vitality Innovation Coverage & Expertise LLCTM has turn into probably the most extensively used instruments to tell policymakers and regulators about which local weather and power insurance policies will cut back greenhouse gasoline emissions most successfully, creating the most important financial and public well being advantages.
With EPS fashions now utilized in 10 nations and 48 states throughout America, we’re usually requested how the EPS works and what peer evaluation it has undergone via its improvement.
The EPS is a System Dynamics pc mannequin created in Vensim, a software produced by Ventana Programs for the creation and simulation of System Dynamics fashions. The mannequin is designed for use with the free Vensim Mannequin Reader, and instructions on acquiring Vensim Mannequin Reader and the EPS can be found on the Obtain and Set up web page. As an open-source modeling software, customers can entry the mannequin through the energypolicy.options web site. To make use of superior options or modify its enter knowledge, customers could obtain the EPS and run it regionally on their Mac or Home windows PC. All the enter knowledge is meticulously cited, publicly accessible, and freely accessible and editable, with outcomes up to date immediately.
The EPS permits customers to mannequin quite a few insurance policies that have an effect on power use and emissions together with a renewable portfolio commonplace, gas economic system requirements for autos, business methane requirements, incentives for clear power applied sciences like we see within the Inflation Discount Act, and accelerated R&D development of assorted applied sciences. These insurance policies might be utilized throughout each main sector of the economic system together with transportation, electrical energy provide, buildings, business, agriculture, and land use. The EPS additionally contains smaller elements like hydrogen provide, district warmth, waste administration, and geoengineering.
The mannequin experiences outputs at annual intervals and gives quite a few outputs, together with:
- Emissions of 12 completely different pollution together with carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and superb particulate matter, in addition to carbon dioxide equal (CO2e) which measures the worldwide warming potential of assorted pollution.
- Direct money circulate (value or financial savings) impacts on authorities, non-energy industries, labor and customers, and 5 energy-supplying industries.
- Direct, oblique, and induced impacts on jobs, GDP, and worker compensation, as an entire or disaggregated into 36 financial classes.
- Untimely mortality and 10 different health-related outcomes prevented from diminished major and secondary particulate air pollution.
- The composition and output of the electrical energy sector (e.g., capability and era from coal, pure gasoline, wind, photo voltaic, and so on.).
- Automobile expertise market shares and fleet composition together with electrical autos.
- Vitality use by gas kind from varied energy-using applied sciences together with particular sorts of autos and constructing elements.
- Breakdowns of how every coverage inside a coverage package deal contributes to complete abatement and the cost-effectiveness of every coverage (e.g., wedge diagrams and price curves).
- Gasoline imports and exports, and related expenditures or revenues.
All methodologies underpinning the EPS have undergone in depth peer evaluation as they had been developed, and we regularly search enter from outdoors consultants to switch the methodologies to deal with any issues which are raised. Parts of the mannequin have been reviewed by people from prestigious establishments together with:
- American Council for an Vitality-Environment friendly Economic system
- Argonne Nationwide Laboratory
- Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory
- Massachusetts Institute of Expertise
- Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory
- RMI
- Stanford College
- Tufts College
- College of Chicago
- U.S. Environmental Safety Company
- World Assets Institute
Nationwide labs, universities, and companions who’ve peer reviewed the Vitality Coverage Simulator
