Two months in the past, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led his militia in a mutiny towards the Russian regime. Now, Prigozhin is believed to have been concerned in a deadly aircraft crash, Russian state media has reported.
Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a personal aircraft that crashed north of Moscow Wednesday, killing all 10 passengers aboard, in accordance with media stories. Russian authorities haven’t formally confirmed the paramilitary chief’s loss of life, however some Telegram channels linked to the Wagner Group have stated that he was killed. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin supplied condolences to victims of the aircraft crash, describing Prigozhin as a person with a “tough destiny.”
If Prigozhin is formally confirmed among the many crash fatalities, it could be a dramatic — however not altogether stunning — improvement. In June, Prigozhin led his militia on a fast march towards Moscow, a brazen problem to Putin’s regime. Prigozhin abruptly halted his revolt earlier than reaching the capital, and the Kremlin later stated Prigozhin had accepted a deal — apparently brokered by Belarus — to enter exile in Belarus.
Few thought Prigozhin was about to get pleasure from a soothing retirement in Minsk — or wherever else, for that matter. As one Wagner watcher informed Vox months earlier than Prigozhin’s short-lived coup: “He is aware of that if the present regime or if his Wagner Group goes down, he goes down with them.”
What we find out about Prigozhin and the aircraft crash
An Embraer jet en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg went down close to town of Tver on Wednesday. Movies circulating on social media confirmed a picture of a aircraft plummeting from the sky; one other appeared to indicate the wreckage ablaze.
Russian media has reported that each one 10 our bodies have now been recovered from the crash and that the aircraft carried three pilots and 7 passengers. Russia’s aviation authorities have stated they’re “investigating the circumstances and causes of the accident,” in accordance with the New York Instances, and are at present testing the passengers’ stays.
Prigozhin was on the passenger manifest, although it’s nonetheless unconfirmed whether or not he was really on the flight. Some Telegram channels, together with these tied to Wagner Group, have begun to publish that Prigozhin has died. The Wagner-affiliated account, Gray Zone, indicated Wednesday that Prigozhin, a “true patriot of the Motherland,” had “died because of the actions of traitors to Russia.”
“However even in Hell he would be the finest! Glory to Russia!” the Telegram publish learn, in accordance with stories.
Different people with Wagner ties had been additionally reportedly listed on the flight manifest, however their deaths are additionally not but formally confirmed. Amongst them is Dmitry Utkin, who is usually cited because the operational chief or co-founder of the Wagner Group, though the proof of that may be a bit murky.
Utkin is reportedly a former commander for the particular forces of the GRU, Russia’s navy intelligence service. Because the story goes, he had a factor for the Third Reich and used “Wagner” as a nom de guerre. Nevertheless, some researchers consider that Utkin is extra probably a straw man, serving to to disguise a few of the paramilitary’s extra direct ties to the Russian state. Anyone who could also be Utkin seems to have labored for Wagner, however he could not have really been in cost, or a founding determine.
Utkin’s title on the passenger record, alongside Prigozhin’s, hints on the chance that this was an effort to purge identified Wagner associates within the wake of the mutiny.
Loads stays unknown. Russian authorities and state media stay the first sources on this crash proper now — entities not precisely identified for his or her transparency. Putin lastly addressed the crash late Thursday, providing condolences to the victims, whom he indicated had been Wagner Group workers. Putin known as Prigozhin a proficient businessman who “made severe errors in life.”
“He achieved the outcomes wanted each for himself and once I requested him about it — for a standard trigger, as in these final months,” Putin reportedly stated.
At the very least one Western intelligence official confirmed Prigozhin’s loss of life to the New York Instances on Thursday. Some US and Western intelligence officers have now stated they consider an explosion probably took down the aircraft, however that isn’t a agency conclusion simply but.
White Home Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson stated in a assertion Wednesday that the administration had seen the stories. “If confirmed, nobody needs to be shocked. The disastrous conflict in Ukraine led to a personal military marching on Moscow, and now — it could appear — to this.”
Prigozhin’s insurrection challenged Putin, and Putin doesn’t usually let his enemies stick round
Often known as “Putin’s chef,” Prigozhin had lengthy been one thing of a fixer for Putin’s regime. He rose from the legal underworld in post-Soviet Russia, and that all the time made him a little bit of an outsider amongst Russia’s elites. He wasn’t precisely in Putin’s internal circle, however he had the talents and connections to make himself helpful and wanted.
The identical was true in his position as the top of the Wagner Group, a sort-of-private military that carried out the geopolitical goals of the Russian state, particularly in locations like Africa and the Center East. Prior to now yr, Wagner had been a few of the simpler Russian fighters in Ukraine, finally taking the japanese metropolis of Bakhmut in a bloody, grinding, months-long battle. It was certainly one of Russia’s uncommon victories from its winter counteroffensive, and Prigozhin had used his clout to accentuate his criticism of Russia’s prime navy brass, posting scathing movies accusing generals of denying Wagner the ammunition and assist wanted to struggle successfully.
Prigozhin’s assaults had been so daring that Putin lastly appeared to lose endurance, and Russia put out a directive that the Russian navy would formally combine Wagner fighters by July. Prigozhin claimed he needed to keep away from that, and that a minimum of partially motivated his insurrection.
That revolt lasted about 24 hours, with Wagner fighters seizing navy installations in Russia’s south and marching on Moscow. Then, simply as abruptly, Prigozhin halted that motion, saying he didn’t want to shed Russian blood. The Kremlin later stated a deal had been reached whereby Prigozhin would keep away from prosecution in trade for going into exile in Belarus, and Wagner fighters might both be a part of him or enlist with the Russian military.
Putin just about tried to return to enterprise as ordinary within the wake of Prigozhin’s mutiny, albeit with much more public appearances. Prigozhin has not been extensively seen in public since his June insurrection, with solely imprecise or sketchy stories of his whereabouts. That features a assertion from the Kremlin in July that claimed that Putin met with Prigozhin shortly after the insurrection, a minimum of one video that appeared like Prigozhin’s voice greeting Wagner recruits in Belarus, and a photograph posted in July apparently taken in St. Petersburg with an official from the Central African Republic.
However he did appear to be getting round, and simply this week, an individual who gave the impression to be Prigozhin spoke in a brief video clip about Wagner’s operations in Africa — although the date and precise location of the video had been unconfirmed. It was his first video since his insurrection, posted about earlier than Wednesday’s aircraft crash.
That provides to the considerably auspicious timing for this aircraft crash, as does the reported elimination of Gen. Sergei Surovikin from his place as Russian aerospace commander. Surovikin, a prime Russian navy chief, was seen as a Prigozhin ally, and US intelligence reportedly had proof that Surovikin may need had advance data of the Wagner insurrection. Surovikin hadn’t been seen because the mutiny, and a few stories had recommended he had been detained within the insurrection’s aftermath.
Surovikin’s obvious elimination and Prigozhin’s potential demise all appear to recommend that Putin could also be purging what he sees as potential threats to his energy. Prigozhin’s place was all the time dependent to a level on Putin’s largesse, and staging a mutiny towards the president put him, fairly unequivocally, in an awfully precarious state. Prigozhin has all the time maintained that his revolt was not a coup try, however his insurrection made it take a look at least attainable that Putin might be overthrown, undermining his picture as an infallible strongman.
Which all the time meant the concept that Putin would let Prigozhin — or any of his Wagner fighters — casually reconstitute in Belarus was very, impossible. Putin has been identified to pursue his perceived enemies at dwelling and overseas for much lower than an armed insurrection. Putin’s critics have been poisoned, together with opposition chief Alexei Navalny. Opponents have fallen out of home windows. Russia has additionally been suspected in aircraft crash assassination plots: Polish authorities allege the Kremlin was accountable for the crash that killed Poland’s president in 2010. And it’s most likely additionally price mentioning Russia’s position in downing a civilian jet over Ukraine in 2014.
Even when Prigozhin suffered the identical destiny as different Putin foes, it’s nonetheless unsure what it means for the Russian regime. Putin can’t totally undo the circumstances that led to Prigozhin’s mutiny. Russia remains to be going through setbacks in Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s criticisms of the Russian navy have discovered continued buy among the many nationalistic proper in Russia. Russian authorities have quietly begun to crack down on some right-wing navy bloggers in current weeks, a sign {that a} post-rebellion purge of Putin’s perceived enemies was already underway.
The world has seen quite a lot of twists within the varied plots which have emerged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s attainable demise could but be one other one. Prigozhin himself was a grasp of misinformation, utilizing propaganda as a part of Wagner’s portfolio and past. He has some incentives to make himself disappear, too.
However no matter occurred with this crash — and whether or not or not Prigozhin actually was on the jet and died in it — Prigozhin was probably by no means going to be the exception to the rule in Putin’s Russia.
Replace, August 24, 1:30 pm ET: This publish was initially printed on August 23 and has been up to date a number of occasions, most not too long ago to incorporate Putin’s feedback on the crash and data from Western intelligence officers.
